Demand-side decarbonization and electrification: EMF 35 JMIP study

نویسندگان

چکیده

Abstract Japan’s long-term strategy submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change emphasizes importance of improving electrification rates reducing GHG emissions. Using five models participating in Energy Modeling Forum 35 Japan Model Intercomparison project (JMIP), we focused demand-side decarbonization and analyzed final energy composition required achieve 80% reductions GHGs by 2050 Japan. The model results show that electricity share use (electrification rate) needs reach 37–66% (26% 2010) emissions reduction 80%. rate increases mainly due switching from fossil fuel end-use technologies (i.e. oil water heater, stove combustion-engine vehicles) heat pump heater electric vehicles). consumption other than AIM/Hub ranged between 840 1260 TWh (AIM/Hub: 1950TWh), which is comparable level seen last 10 years (950–1035 TWh). pace at must be increased a challenge. suggest increase 0.46–1.58%/yr 2030 2050. Neither past (0.30%/year 1990 nor outlook Ministry Economy, Trade Industry (0.15%/year 2010 2030) enough suggested Therefore, more concrete measures accelerate dissemination across all sectors need established.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Sustainability Science

سال: 2021

ISSN: ['1862-4065', '1862-4057']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-021-00935-w